Climate / Other
Researchers propose common risk measure for carbon removal projects
Carbon at Risk aims to compare the chance that contracted removals fail to materialize.
Status: source-checked.
Researchers have proposed a standardized measure to compare the risk that carbon removal projects deliver less than contracted, the University of Exeter said in a Nov. 6 announcement. Called Carbon at Risk, the framework is intended to let buyers compare approaches such as forest restoration and geological storage on a common quantitative scale.
The work, published in Nature Climate Change, adapts an idea from financial risk management. The researchers developed the framework through workshops with academics and industry participants and tested proof-of-concept cases involving forest carbon and geological storage. Those demonstrations are not evidence that every project’s risk can already be measured precisely.
The approach considers how combining projects exposed to different hazards can reduce a portfolio’s vulnerability to one event. Forest projects with independent wildfire risks offer one example; technologies that react differently to temperature or political changes offer another. Diversification does not mean individual projects cannot fail.
Exeter’s Ben Groom said the measure could guide buffer reserves and give insurers a basis for assessing reversal risk. Co-lead author Bali Lee said scaling removal methods also requires attention to land competition and government coordination. The framework proposes a way to assess and manage risk, not a guarantee of permanent storage or a substitute for cutting emissions.
What we know / what we don't
What we know
- Carbon at Risk aims to compare the chance that contracted removals fail to materialize.
What we don't know
- Proof-of-concept risk framework; does not guarantee project performance, insurance availability or permanent storage.
The source record