Climate / Other
Feedback between soil, pressure and heat makes 'mega heatwaves' hotter, study finds
A PIK- and IIASA-led study in Science Advances found a self-reinforcing interaction that makes extreme heatwaves about 10 percent hotter.
Source-checked story: attributed primary-source and published reporting; no on-location reporting.
A self-reinforcing interaction between temperature, soil moisture and atmospheric pressure is triggered at high temperatures, making extreme heatwaves 10 percent hotter than they would otherwise be, according to a study published Nov. 6 in Science Advances, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research said.
The study was led by PIK and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and used machine learning methods and statistical analysis, according to the institute.
In Europe, the feedback interaction is triggered at around four Kelvin above average summer temperatures, or roughly 29°C, the institute said. Between 1979-1983 the likelihood of temperatures in Central Europe exceeding this threshold was 6 percent; in 2018-2022, it was 23 percent.
“If we’re right and this interaction is making the most extreme heat events even hotter, it means we could be in store for more severe future heatwave risks than what is currently expected,” said Kai Kornhuber, a co-author from IIASA.
The institute said the self-reinforcing dynamic is currently not well represented in the climate models that forecast extreme heat events.
What we know / what we don't
What we know
- A PIK- and IIASA-led study in Science Advances found a self-reinforcing interaction that makes extreme heatwaves about 10 percent hotter.
What we don't know
The source record